Craig High School Program Spotlight

CHS Seniors Compete in Nationwide Forecasting Tournament:  Craig High is proud to share that our 12th graders took part in a “Forecasting Tournament” with other high school students around the country.  The three-month tournament was sponsored by the Alliance for Decision Education (https://alliancefordecisioneducation.org/).  Decision Education promotes an essential collection of important life skills that draws from multiple fields including behavioral sciences, mathematics, research, data analysis, and philosophy.  Within the scope of Decision Education is Forecasting. 

Forecasting is the art of predicting future outcomes using historical and current information.  It supports the continued development of critical thinking skills by requiring our students to draw upon their own prior knowledge, acknowledge potential personal biases, prioritize what they deem as highly influential variables, and immerse themselves in valid and focused research to rationalize their forecasts.   

Our CHS forecasting team made 15 forecasts over the course of the past few months which were measured by a Brier Score which is a mathematical way of measuring how accurate a forecast is in relation to the outcome.  Students needed to first complete a Forecasting Training course.  To apply our newly learned forecasting skills, we did a practice forecast where we predicted the recent opening weekend for Dune II.  Our team researched and discussed the outcome of the opening of Dune I, the competition in theatres that weekend, how many theatres it was opening in, the popularity of the lead actors, the various movie genres that Dune could potentially fall under, and the fanbase that it would attract.  Based on their research and their discussions with each other, our students were in the forecasting ballpark, predicting that it would hit over the 75 Million Mark. It ended up at 81.5 Million.